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New jersey seashore map1/4/2024 ![]() ![]() High-tide flooding – sometimes called sunny-day or nuisance flooding – has become a bigger problem, too. Hurricanes Sandy and Irene are all-too-vivid illustrations of just how destructive and potentially deadly storm tides can be. Because of sea level rise, storm tides start at a higher baseline and push seawater farther inland. In some cases, coastal flooding is the result of storm tide, which is the total observed seawater level during a storm, resulting from the combination of storm surge and the astronomical tide. Of these, flooding is perhaps the most obvious and impactful. While it’s impossible to pin down the exact level of future sea level rise, there’s no doubt it’s already having serious consequences along the coast. HOW IS SEA LEVEL RISE AFFECTING NEW JERSEY? In a scenario where there are few to limited actions to reduce fossil fuel emissions, New Jersey is likely to see sea level rise of 1.5 to 3.5 feet by 2070, and 2.3 to 6.3 feet by 2100. If we meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, which aims to hold global warming to no more than 2☌ above early industrial temperatures, New Jersey is likely to experience sea level rise of 1.3 to 2.7 feet by 2070, and up to 4 feet by 2100. Looking farther into the future, the rate of sea level rise will depend upon how successful the world is at curtailing greenhouse gas emissions. For example, according to a 2019 report from Rutgers University, it is likely – meaning at least a 66% chance – that New Jersey will experience sea level rise of 0.5 to 1.1 feet between 20, and 0.9 to 2.1 feet between 20. To account for this uncertainty, scientists project future sea level rise as a range of probabilities (see figure 1, above). Scientists are also intensively studying Greenland and Antarctica to better understand the dynamics of melting ice sheets and the possibility that they are approaching the point of irreversible, catastrophic meltdown. ![]() Much depends on future greenhouse gas emissions and subsequent global warming. Projecting the magnitude and rate of sea level rise in the coming decades is a challenging task. ![]() Pumping large amounts of water from aquifers also adds to the sinking of New Jersey’s coastline. In what amounts to a geologic seesaw, the mid-Atlantic region is subsiding, or sinking, while land to the north once covered by Ice Age glaciers rises up. The problem is compounded in New Jersey by at least two other factors unrelated to climate change. The loss of glaciers and ice sheets currently accounts for about 45% of global sea level rise. Naturally, the faster ice sheets melt (and there is evidence that ice loss in Greenland and Antarctica is speeding up), the more sea level rise will accelerate. The melting of glaciers and ice sheets is another major contributor to rising oceans. Scientists call this process “thermal expansion,” and it’s responsible for about 40% of global sea level rise in the last 25 years. Heat trapped by greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is absorbed by the oceans, causing seawater to expand. The rate over the last quarter century (1.0 ft/century) was about twice as fast. Research conducted at Rutgers University indicates that global sea level rise in the 20th century (about 0.5 ft/century) was the fastest in at least 3,000 years. Even more concerning, the rate of sea level rise is accelerating. Sea level at the Jersey Shore has risen about 18 inches since the early 1900s, more than twice the global mean of about 8 inches. Sea level rise poses a threat to people and property in coastal areas around the world and is especially acute in New Jersey. Whole-Community Climate Resilience Planning.Rutgers Cooperative Extension Food Waste Team.Rising Together, NJ – Flood Stories from M圜oast.Office of the NJ State Climatologist at Rutgers University.Creating Flood-Resilient Landscapes: A Primer for New Jersey.Ecosystem Service Valuation & Carbon Mitigation for NJ Agriculture.Carbon Mitigation Research at Duke Farms.NJ Climate Change & Land Management Research Initiative.Opportunities to Address Ocean Acidification Impacts in New Jersey.About the Transformative Climate Communities Grant Program. ![]()
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